Critics’ Choice Awards Preview: Who Needs to Win the Most?

 For some actors, directors and films, tomorrow night’s Critics' Choice Awards represent their last chance to win potential nominating votes from Motion Picture Academy members.  But some need to win a lot more than others.  A major upset tomorrow night at Critics’ Choice could get a film, director or actor on the bubble nominated come January 24.

Best Supporting Actress

Let’s start with Best Supporting Actress.  Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) appear to be safe and probably don’t need to win tomorrow night to get an Oscar nomination.  Stephanie Hsu could really be helped by a Critics’ Choice win, but she is in a film expected to receive the most Oscar nominations and possibly win the Best Picture Oscar.  Jessie Buckley’s film, Women Talking, hasn’t fared all that well in the precursors and she is now the only female cast member with even the slightest realistic chance of being nominated.  Ms. Buckley definitely needs to win tomorrow night more than anyone else in this category.

Needs to Win: Jessie Buckley, either individually or in the Ensemble Cast race

Should Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Will Win: Kerry Condon

Best Supporting Actor

This category has the one actor who could run away with nearly everything, former child star Ke Huy Quan of Everything Everywhere All At Once.  He should not need to win at Critics’ Choice to be one of the Oscar five.  Brian Tyree Henry of Causeway, however, is in a battle for the last spot or two and could use a win.

Needs to Win: Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

Should Win: Brendon Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Actress

After Wednesday’s SAG nomination shocker, Michelle Williams is probably most in need of a win, and not just to even get nominated, but to show she can compete for Best Actress against co-favorites Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once).  Margot Robbie of Babylon also desperately needs to win at Critics’ Choice.

Needs to Win: Michelle Williams and Margot Robbie

Should Win: Cate Blanchett (Tár)

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) appear to be safe.  Bill Nighy (Living) is less of a lock than Butler, Fraser and Farrell, but also seems safe.  Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), seemingly the only past Oscar nominee in true contention in this category this year, and relatively little-known Paul Mescal (Aftersun) seem to be in a battle with surprise SAG nominee Adam Sandler (Hustle) and Golden Globe nominee Hugh Jackman (The Son), among others, for that last Best Actor slot.

Needs to Win: Tom Cruise and Paul Mescal

Should Win: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Will Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Best Director

I think the nominated directors who would benefit most from an upset win at Critics’ Choice tomorrow are S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Sarah Polley (Women Talking) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King).

Needs to Win: Gina Prince-Bythewood 

Should Win: Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Will Win: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Picture

A month ago, Babylon and Women Talking appeared to be shoo-ins for Best Picture Oscar nominations.  Both films are in serious trouble now.  An upset win at Critics’ Choice would very much help both films.

Needs to Win: Women Talking

Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

 

Golden Globe Motion Picture Awards Preview: Who Needs To Win The Most Tonight?

Every year there are some films and actors that appear to be such overwhelming Oscar victory favorites that they could lose at the Golden Globes and be in absolutely no danger of not being nominated.  For example, does anyone at this point honestly believe that Michelle Yeoh, who’s expected to win Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy for Everything Everywhere All At Once, won’t be one of the five Best Actress nominees two weeks from today?  And Colin Farrell of The Banshees of Inisherin may be the only Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy nominee who doesn’t need to win tonight  to be nominated for an Oscar.

But what about the rest of the pack?  Who desperately needs to win at tonight’s Golden Globe Awards to keep alive what may be fading Oscar nomination hopes.  Let’s take a look.

Let’s start with what is traditionally the first award of the night, Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture.  Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and, to a lesser extent, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) seem to be safe.  Dolly DeLeon of Triangle of Sadness, however, may need to pull off an upset tonight to make the Oscar cut.  And Carey Mulligan, whose She Said just isn’t doing well this awards season, really needs to win, or else, in all likelihood, no Oscar nomination.  In the Best Supporting Actor race, maybe only little-known Barry Keoghan of The Banshees of Inisherin is in a “must win to get in” scenario.  Keoghan’s co-star Brendon Gleeson appears to be safe, and Ke Huy Quan of EEAAO is really safe, as well he should be after dominating the critics’ group awards.  As for Brad Pitt of Babylon, he could be the one member of his film’s cast to get an Oscar nomination despite its fading fortunes.  Plus, Pitt won two of three previous times he was nominated in this category at the Golden Globes, so he can’t be ruled out for an upset.

In the Best Screenplay race, Sarah Polley, who wrote and directed Women Talking, may need to win here to stop her film’s awards season freefall. As for Best Director, probably every single nominee needs to win to be assured of a Best Director Oscar nomination.  A clearer picture of who may be nominated for an Oscar may come with tomorrow’s Directors’ Guild nominations.

In the Best Actress categories, Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (EEAAO) do not need to win tonight to get Oscar nominations, but people like Margot Robbie (Babylon), Ana De Armas (Blonde) and Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris) most certainly do.  In the Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy Globe race, if your name is not Colin Farrell, you’d better pull off a major upset tonight to have any shot at an Oscar nomination.  In the Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama race, the nominees most in need of a win tonight are Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) and Hugh Jackman (The Son)

.Finally, in the Best Picture categories, the films most in need of a win are Babylon, Triangle of Sadness and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.

Below are my predictions for the Golden Globe Awards for Motion Pictures.

 

Best Motion Picture Drama: Elvis

Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy: Everything Everywhere All At Once (But don’t be too shocked if The Banshees of Inisherin wins instead.)

Best Actor Drama: Austin Butler in Elvis

Best Actress Drama: Cate Blanchett in Tár

Best Actor Musical or Comedy: Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Actress Musical or Comedy: Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Animated Feature: Pinocchio

Best Original Song: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Best Original Score: John Williams for The Fabelmans

Best Non-English Language Film: RRR

Best Director: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Screenplay: Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin

Oscar Nomination Sidebar: “First Four Out” in Each Acting Race

 Here are my guesses about who was the last one in and who were the “first four out” in each acting race.  By “first four out,” I mean the actors/actresses who were the last to be eliminated in the Oscar nomination ballot counting and vote transferring process and thus came closest to actually being nominated, and I based my guesses on how the precursors went.

Best Actor

Last one in: Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos

First four out: Mahershala Ali, Swan Song; Nicolas Cage, Pig; Leonardo DiCaprio, Don’t Look Up; Peter Dinklage, Cyrano.

Best Actress

Last one in: Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

First four out: Lady Gaga, The House of Gucci; Alana Haim, Licorice Pizza; Jennifer Hudson, Respect; Rachel Zegler, West Side Story.

Best Supporting Actor

Last one in: Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog

First four out: Ben Affleck, The Tender Bar; Bradley Cooper, Licorice Pizza; Jamie Dornan, Belfast; Jared Leto, The House of Gucci.

Best Supporting Actress

Last one in: Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter

First four out: Caitriona Balfe, Belfast; Cate Blanchett, for either Don’t Look Up or Nightmare Alley; Ruth Negga, Passing; Meryl Streep, Don’t Look Up.

 

What I Think of the Oscar Nominations

 I watched the Oscar nominations this past Tuesday, and there were the usual surprises.  But I want to focus on a few omissions in particular: Lady Gaga, Jennifer Hudson and Caitriona Balfe.

 The biggest shocker was no Best Actress nomination for Lady Gaga in The House of Gucci. With her status as the only Best Actress hopeful to be nominated in all four major precursors (Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, Screen Actors’ Guild and BAFTA), Lady Gaga was thought to be an absolute lock along with Nicole Kidman of Being the Ricardos. Plus, the Screen Actors’ Guild gave The House of Gucci three nominations for its awards: Best Actress for Lady Gaga, Best Supporting Actor for Jared Leto and Best Ensemble Cast.  Surely the actors were behind Gaga and her film, or so we thought.

Actors who are members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences clearly didn’t share the love this year’s SAG-AFTRA Nominating Committee members had for The House of Gucci and Lady Gaga, who was, in NCAA Tournament Bracketology terms, one of the “first four out,” edged out by Penelope Cruz for Parallel Mothers, who was almost certainly the last Best Actress candidate to be nominated.  Lady Gaga also became the record fourth straight winner of the New York Film Critics’ Circle’s Best Actress award not to be Oscar nominated, after mostly out-of-left-field choices from much lower profile films with minimal Oscar prospects: Regina Hall (Support the Girls), Lupita Nyong’o (Us) and Sidney Flanigan (Never Rarely Sometimes Always).

Yet as shocking as Lady Gaga’s absence from the list of Oscar nominees was, it probably didn’t elicit as much anger as Jennifer Hudson not being nominated for playing Aretha Franklin in Respect.  Ms. Hudson’s absence meant another year with a virtually all-white roster of Best Actress nominees.

I suspect lack of precursor nods hurt Jennifer Hudson in the end.  Especially damaging to Ms. Hudson was losing out to surprise nominee Marion Cotillard for a Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy Golden Globe Award nomination (assuming Ms. Hudson was entered in the Musical or Comedy classification).  If anyone can enlighten me about whether Jennifer Hudson was on the Drama or Musical/Comedy lead actress Golden Globe nominating ballot, please let me know in the comments section, but it’s clear to me that not getting a Golden Globe nomination did fatal damage to Ms. Hudson’s Oscar prospects that her SAG award nomination failed to overcome.

Then there’s the case of Caitriona Balfe of Belfast, who all awards season long was positioned as a Best Supporting Actress candidate.  Her failure to be nominated may be due to one unique feature of the Oscar nomination decision process:  Academy Actors’ Branch members being free to disregard the studios’ or producers’ preference.  When Academy members filled out their Oscar nominating ballots, hopefully after actually seeing the movies, I think quite a few of them thought to themselves, “Hey, wait a minute. Caitriona Balfe is not a Supporting Actress in Belfast.”  So maybe enough Academy members voted for Ms. Balfe in the Best Actress race to keep her from getting enough first choice votes to be nominated for Best Supporting Actress.  It was probably between Ms. Balfe and The Lost Daughter’s Jessie Buckley for that last Best Supporting Actress spot that remained to be filled.  Plus, I think Academy votes got behind Ms. Balfe’s Belfast co-star Judi Dench, who was an undisputed supporting actress in that movie in terms of screen time and plot importance.

In other Oscar nomination related tidbits, I believe Belfast, with no Film Editing nomination, and Dune, with no Best Director nomination, saw their Oscar Night victory hopes sustain serious damage.  As for how I did in my Oscar nomination predictions, I went 3 for 5 in Best Supporting Actress, 4 for 5 in Best Supporting Actor, 3 for 5 in Best Actress, 4 for 5 in Best Actor, 4 for 5 in Best Director and 8 for 10 in Best Picture.

 

My (Better Late Than Never) Oscar Nomination Predictions

 I apologize for being quite late with this, but I’m ready to speculate on what  could happen tomorrow morning when the Oscar nominations are announced and offer my predictions in the big categories.

I’ll start with Best Supporting Actress, which is likely to be the first category announced tomorrow morning.  Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Caitriona Balffe (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) and, to a lesser extent, Ruth Negga (Passing) appear to be safe.  

The last spot seems to be up for grabs. Aunjanue Ellis has the apparent lead for that last spot for her role as Oracene Price in King Richard, but her absence from individual recognition at the SAG Awards makes her vulnerable to being picked off.  If that happens, it could come down to which film between Belfast and West Side Story gets a second Supporting Actress nominee.  If Rita Moreno (age 90 years, 2 months) of West Side Story is nominated, she would become the oldest ever Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominee, while Judi Dench (age 87 years, 2 months) of Belfast would be the second oldest nominee in this category’s history behind Gloria Stuart, or third oldest if both Ms. Dench and Ms. Moreno are nominated, which is highly unlikely.

Academy voters could look to perennial nomination favorites, such as Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up), Cate Blanchett (either Don’t Look Up or Nightmare Alley), Judi Dench (Belfast) or Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth)  to fill out a category that will otherwise be dominated by first-time nominees.  Also possible are Ann Dowd (Mass) and Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter).

My picks:

Caitriona Balfe, Belfast

Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog

Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard

Ruth Negga, Passing

One more thing:  shouldn’t Caitriona Balfe be in the Best Actress race for Belfast instead of Best Supporting Actress?

Best Supporting Actor

Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) and Troy Kotsur (CODA) seem to be safe, and it looks increasingly likely that there will be only one Best Supporting Actor nominee from Belfast, Ciaran Hinds.  Assuming these three are in, who will join them? Possibilities include Jared Leto (The House of Gucci), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Jamie Dornan of Belfast (if he isn’t bumped up to lead), Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza), Mike Faist (West Side Story), Woody Norman (C’mon, C’mon) and Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar).

My Picks

Ciaran Hinds, Belfast

Troy Kotsur, CODA

Jared Leto, The House of Gucci

J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos

Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog

Best Actress

Based on nomination predictions I’ve seen in papers and in cyberspace, most Oscar pundits seem to be in agreement that the “Big Four” (Nicole Kidman of Being the Ricardos, Lady Gaga of The House of Gucci, Olivia Colman of The Lost Daughter and Jessica Chastain of The Eyes of Tammy Faye) will all be nominated for Best Actress, leaving only that last spot in doubt.  I think only Ms. Kidman and Ms. Gaga are locks and the other three spots are up for grabs.  So who will fill them?

I am still clinging to my belief that Kristen Stewart will come back to get an Oscar nomination for playing Princess Diana in Spencer, despite not being nominated by the Screen Actors Guild.  And the beauty of the Oscar nomination system is that one does not have to come anywhere close to being the top overall vote getter to be nominated; she just needs to get a lot of first choice votes, or at least enough to avoid being eliminated right away. I think Ms. Stewart will get just enough first choice votes to be nominated or at least enough to get in after inheriting all those surplus second choice votes from Nicole Kidman or Lady Gaga supporters.  

Also vying for those surplus votes from the frontrunners will be Alana Haim of Licorice Pizza, Emilia Jones of  CODA, Jennifer Hudson of Respect, Rachel Zegler of West Side Story, Renate Reinsve of The Worst Person in the World, Frances McDormand of The Tragedy of Macbeth (if she doesn’t land in supporting instead for this role), Penelope Cruz of Parallel Mothers and maybe Caitriona Balfe, providing enough Academy Actors Branch members think she’s a lead actress and not a supporting actress in Belfast.

My picks:

Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers

Lady Gaga, The House of Gucci

Emilia Jones, CODA

Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos

Kristen Stewart, Spencer

Best Actor

I am quite confident about four of the Best Actor hopefuls: Will Smith in King Richard, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog, Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth and Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick…BOOM!  It is the fifth spot that seems to be in question.  Will it be Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) or none of the above?  I think none of the above.  Watch out for Hidetoshi Nishijima of Drive My Car.

My Picks:

Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog

Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick…BOOM!

Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car

Will Smith, King Richard

Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth

Best Director

I believe that four of the five Directors Guild nominees will make the Oscar cut, as usual.  I am concerned, though, that Academy Directors Branch members could look to penalize Steven Spielberg for the disappointing grosses of West Side Story.  I hope they don’t, but I suspect they might, and the most likely beneficiaries are Ryusuke Hamaguchi of Drive My Car, Adam McKay of Don’t Look Up, Lin-Manuel Miranda of Tick, Tick…BOOM! and Sian Heder of CODA.

My Picks:

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car

Denis Villenueve, Dune

Finally, here are my picks for Best Picture:

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Dune

House of Gucci

King Richard

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

Tick, Tick…BOOM!

West Side Story

I’ll be watching tomorrow’s nominations to see how I did.  However, more than anything, despite my predictions, I really want to see Jennifer Hudson nominated for playing Aretha Franklin in Respect.  It probably won’t happen, but I’d love it if it did.