Critics’ Choice Awards Preview: Who Needs to Win the Most?

 For some actors, directors and films, tomorrow night’s Critics' Choice Awards represent their last chance to win potential nominating votes from Motion Picture Academy members.  But some need to win a lot more than others.  A major upset tomorrow night at Critics’ Choice could get a film, director or actor on the bubble nominated come January 24.

Best Supporting Actress

Let’s start with Best Supporting Actress.  Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) appear to be safe and probably don’t need to win tomorrow night to get an Oscar nomination.  Stephanie Hsu could really be helped by a Critics’ Choice win, but she is in a film expected to receive the most Oscar nominations and possibly win the Best Picture Oscar.  Jessie Buckley’s film, Women Talking, hasn’t fared all that well in the precursors and she is now the only female cast member with even the slightest realistic chance of being nominated.  Ms. Buckley definitely needs to win tomorrow night more than anyone else in this category.

Needs to Win: Jessie Buckley, either individually or in the Ensemble Cast race

Should Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Will Win: Kerry Condon

Best Supporting Actor

This category has the one actor who could run away with nearly everything, former child star Ke Huy Quan of Everything Everywhere All At Once.  He should not need to win at Critics’ Choice to be one of the Oscar five.  Brian Tyree Henry of Causeway, however, is in a battle for the last spot or two and could use a win.

Needs to Win: Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

Should Win: Brendon Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Actress

After Wednesday’s SAG nomination shocker, Michelle Williams is probably most in need of a win, and not just to even get nominated, but to show she can compete for Best Actress against co-favorites Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once).  Margot Robbie of Babylon also desperately needs to win at Critics’ Choice.

Needs to Win: Michelle Williams and Margot Robbie

Should Win: Cate Blanchett (Tár)

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) appear to be safe.  Bill Nighy (Living) is less of a lock than Butler, Fraser and Farrell, but also seems safe.  Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), seemingly the only past Oscar nominee in true contention in this category this year, and relatively little-known Paul Mescal (Aftersun) seem to be in a battle with surprise SAG nominee Adam Sandler (Hustle) and Golden Globe nominee Hugh Jackman (The Son), among others, for that last Best Actor slot.

Needs to Win: Tom Cruise and Paul Mescal

Should Win: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Will Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Best Director

I think the nominated directors who would benefit most from an upset win at Critics’ Choice tomorrow are S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Sarah Polley (Women Talking) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King).

Needs to Win: Gina Prince-Bythewood 

Should Win: Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Will Win: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Picture

A month ago, Babylon and Women Talking appeared to be shoo-ins for Best Picture Oscar nominations.  Both films are in serious trouble now.  An upset win at Critics’ Choice would very much help both films.

Needs to Win: Women Talking

Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once