This has been a rather strange and unpredictable Oscar
season, and we seem to be headed for another Best Picture Oscar Night
upset. I guess we’ll have to wait ‘til
next year to see a return to 70s/80s/90s-style Oscar normalcy.
Best Supporting
Actress
Early in the awards season, Lady Bird’s Laurie Metcalf, who won most of the major critics’
groups’ best supporting actress awards, seemed to be running away with the
Oscar. Instead, it is now I, Tonya’s Allison Janney who is running
away from the pack
My pick to win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Most likely to pull off an upset: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Best Supporting Actor
In this category as well, we had
an early runaway favorite who was winning everywhere (Willem Dafoe of The Florida Project), then there was a
momentum shift at the time of the Golden Globes in favor of Sam Rockwell of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.
My pick to win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Most likely to pull off an upset:
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Best Actor
Timothee Chalamet won the lion’s
share of the critics’ awards for Call Me
By Your Name, but since the critics’ awards ended, Gary Oldman has solidly
taken the lead in the Best Actor race.
My pick to win: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour
Most likely to pull off an upset:
Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Best Actress
Frances McDormand has virtually
swept the highest-profile precursors (i.e. Golden Globe, BFCA’s Critics’
Choice, SAG and BAFTA), but because she has won an Oscar previously, for the
1996 film Fargo, she could get picked
off because of Academy voters’ long-standing reluctance to give any actor or
actress more than one Oscar during his/her career. But who’s going to knock off
Frances McDormand? It won’t be Meryl
Streep of The Post. (Katherine
Hepburn’s record of four Oscars by an actor or actress will remain safe for at
least another year as Daniel Day Lewis of Phantom
Thread isn’t winning either.) And I
doubt it will be Saoirse Ronan of Lady
Bird. I would’ve liked Margot
Robbie’s chances for an upset better if I,
Tonya had been nominated for Best Picture as expected. Maybe if there’s a late groundswell for The Shape of Water, Sally Hawkins might
win.
My pick to win: Frances McDormand,
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Most likely to pull off an upset:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Best Original Screenplay
This category is loaded. Any one of four films could win in this
category.
My pick to win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Most likely to pull off an upset A:
Lady Bird, because in case Greta
Gerwig loses out for Best Director, Academy voters may want to give her a
consolation prize.
Most likely to pull off an upset
B: Get Out, which just won the
Writers’ Guild award.
Best Adapted Screenplay
My pick to win: Call Me By Your Name
Most likely to pull off an upset: Mudbound
Best Director
The Shape of Water has been something of a paper tiger this awards
season, consistently leading all films in nominations in one contest after
another, but just as consistently failing to win that many awards of any sort,
let alone Best Picture. Will this drag down Guillermo Del Toro, winner at the
Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, DGA and BAFTA awards? I still think Best Director is a two-person
race between Del Toro and Greta Gerwig of Lady
Bird.
My pick to win: Guillermo Del
Toro, The Shape of Water. However, if
Del Toro loses the Best Director Oscar, The
Shape of Water will NOT win Best Picture.
Most likely to pull off an upset:
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird, who I think
will receive a HUGE chunk of the female vote from Academy members.
Best Picture
Let’s start by listing the films I
think have absolutely no chance of winning: The
Post, Phantom Thread and The Darkest
Hour. That still leaves Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Call
Me By Your Name, Get Out and Three
Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and you could make a strong case for
and against any one of these six.
-The Shape of Water
Pro: It has the most nominations
and is the film most likely to win the Best Director award. It also won the
Producers’ Guild and Directors’ Guild awards.
Con: For all of its domination of
the awards at the nomination stage, this film has frankly not done all that
well in the final tallies. At least La La Land last year backed up all of
its nominations by winning a lot of awards in most contests up to and including
the Oscars.
-Get Out
Pro: WGA win, critical acclaim
Con: Before the WGA awards, Get Out didn’t win much of anything in
the highest profile precursor awards, but then again neither did Spotlight and Moonlight, and look what happened.
-Lady Bird
Pro: Possibly the most consistent
winner of all the Best Picture nominees in the critics’ awards
Con: This film hasn’t done a whole
lot of winning since the critics’ awards ended.
-Call Me By Your Name
Pro: WGA win, critical acclaim
Con: No Best Director nomination,
not much in the way of wins since critics’ awards ended
-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Pro: Won Best Motion Picture Drama
Golden Globe Award, Won BAFTA Best Picture Award, Won SAG Best Ensemble Cast
Award
Con: No Best Director nomination
-Dunkirk
Pro: This film finished second in
total nominations and was a critical and commercial success. Also, based on what I’ve read, a lot of
people in movie circles still think this film has a chance to win.
Con: Where are this film’s big
award wins? I find it a little hard to believe that Dunkirk, after winning very little of significance all awards
season, will suddenly sweep or nearly sweep Oscar Night.
My pick to win: The Shape of Water, but not if Del Toro
loses Best Director.
Most likely to pull off an upset A:
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri,
because this film has been The Shape
of Water’s nemesis since the Golden Globe Awards.
Most likely to pull off an upset
B: Get Out
Last updated March 1, 2018
