I apologize for being quite late with this, but I’m ready to speculate on what could happen tomorrow morning when the Oscar nominations are announced and offer my predictions in the big categories.
I’ll start with Best Supporting Actress, which is likely to be the first category announced tomorrow morning. Ariana DeBose (West Side Story), Caitriona Balffe (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) and, to a lesser extent, Ruth Negga (Passing) appear to be safe.
The last spot seems to be up for grabs. Aunjanue Ellis has the apparent lead for that last spot for her role as Oracene Price in King Richard, but her absence from individual recognition at the SAG Awards makes her vulnerable to being picked off. If that happens, it could come down to which film between Belfast and West Side Story gets a second Supporting Actress nominee. If Rita Moreno (age 90 years, 2 months) of West Side Story is nominated, she would become the oldest ever Best Supporting Actress Oscar nominee, while Judi Dench (age 87 years, 2 months) of Belfast would be the second oldest nominee in this category’s history behind Gloria Stuart, or third oldest if both Ms. Dench and Ms. Moreno are nominated, which is highly unlikely.
Academy voters could look to perennial nomination favorites, such as Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up), Cate Blanchett (either Don’t Look Up or Nightmare Alley), Judi Dench (Belfast) or Frances McDormand (The Tragedy of Macbeth) to fill out a category that will otherwise be dominated by first-time nominees. Also possible are Ann Dowd (Mass) and Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter).
My picks:
Caitriona Balfe, Belfast
Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
Ruth Negga, Passing
One more thing: shouldn’t Caitriona Balfe be in the Best Actress race for Belfast instead of Best Supporting Actress?
Best Supporting Actor
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) and Troy Kotsur (CODA) seem to be safe, and it looks increasingly likely that there will be only one Best Supporting Actor nominee from Belfast, Ciaran Hinds. Assuming these three are in, who will join them? Possibilities include Jared Leto (The House of Gucci), J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos), Jamie Dornan of Belfast (if he isn’t bumped up to lead), Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza), Mike Faist (West Side Story), Woody Norman (C’mon, C’mon) and Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar).
My Picks
Ciaran Hinds, Belfast
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jared Leto, The House of Gucci
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Actress
Based on nomination predictions I’ve seen in papers and in cyberspace, most Oscar pundits seem to be in agreement that the “Big Four” (Nicole Kidman of Being the Ricardos, Lady Gaga of The House of Gucci, Olivia Colman of The Lost Daughter and Jessica Chastain of The Eyes of Tammy Faye) will all be nominated for Best Actress, leaving only that last spot in doubt. I think only Ms. Kidman and Ms. Gaga are locks and the other three spots are up for grabs. So who will fill them?
I am still clinging to my belief that Kristen Stewart will come back to get an Oscar nomination for playing Princess Diana in Spencer, despite not being nominated by the Screen Actors Guild. And the beauty of the Oscar nomination system is that one does not have to come anywhere close to being the top overall vote getter to be nominated; she just needs to get a lot of first choice votes, or at least enough to avoid being eliminated right away. I think Ms. Stewart will get just enough first choice votes to be nominated or at least enough to get in after inheriting all those surplus second choice votes from Nicole Kidman or Lady Gaga supporters.
Also vying for those surplus votes from the frontrunners will be Alana Haim of Licorice Pizza, Emilia Jones of CODA, Jennifer Hudson of Respect, Rachel Zegler of West Side Story, Renate Reinsve of The Worst Person in the World, Frances McDormand of The Tragedy of Macbeth (if she doesn’t land in supporting instead for this role), Penelope Cruz of Parallel Mothers and maybe Caitriona Balfe, providing enough Academy Actors Branch members think she’s a lead actress and not a supporting actress in Belfast.
My picks:
Penelope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Lady Gaga, The House of Gucci
Emilia Jones, CODA
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Best Actor
I am quite confident about four of the Best Actor hopefuls: Will Smith in King Richard, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Power of the Dog, Denzel Washington in The Tragedy of Macbeth and Andrew Garfield in Tick, Tick…BOOM! It is the fifth spot that seems to be in question. Will it be Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos), Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) or none of the above? I think none of the above. Watch out for Hidetoshi Nishijima of Drive My Car.
My Picks:
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick…BOOM!
Hidetoshi Nishijima, Drive My Car
Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Director
I believe that four of the five Directors Guild nominees will make the Oscar cut, as usual. I am concerned, though, that Academy Directors Branch members could look to penalize Steven Spielberg for the disappointing grosses of West Side Story. I hope they don’t, but I suspect they might, and the most likely beneficiaries are Ryusuke Hamaguchi of Drive My Car, Adam McKay of Don’t Look Up, Lin-Manuel Miranda of Tick, Tick…BOOM! and Sian Heder of CODA.
My Picks:
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Denis Villenueve, Dune
Finally, here are my picks for Best Picture:
Belfast
CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
House of Gucci
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
Tick, Tick…BOOM!
West Side Story
I’ll be watching tomorrow’s nominations to see how I did. However, more than anything, despite my predictions, I really want to see Jennifer Hudson nominated for playing Aretha Franklin in Respect. It probably won’t happen, but I’d love it if it did.
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