Critics’ Choice Awards Preview: Who Needs to Win the Most?

 For some actors, directors and films, tomorrow night’s Critics' Choice Awards represent their last chance to win potential nominating votes from Motion Picture Academy members.  But some need to win a lot more than others.  A major upset tomorrow night at Critics’ Choice could get a film, director or actor on the bubble nominated come January 24.

Best Supporting Actress

Let’s start with Best Supporting Actress.  Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) appear to be safe and probably don’t need to win tomorrow night to get an Oscar nomination.  Stephanie Hsu could really be helped by a Critics’ Choice win, but she is in a film expected to receive the most Oscar nominations and possibly win the Best Picture Oscar.  Jessie Buckley’s film, Women Talking, hasn’t fared all that well in the precursors and she is now the only female cast member with even the slightest realistic chance of being nominated.  Ms. Buckley definitely needs to win tomorrow night more than anyone else in this category.

Needs to Win: Jessie Buckley, either individually or in the Ensemble Cast race

Should Win: Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Will Win: Kerry Condon

Best Supporting Actor

This category has the one actor who could run away with nearly everything, former child star Ke Huy Quan of Everything Everywhere All At Once.  He should not need to win at Critics’ Choice to be one of the Oscar five.  Brian Tyree Henry of Causeway, however, is in a battle for the last spot or two and could use a win.

Needs to Win: Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)

Should Win: Brendon Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Will Win: Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Actress

After Wednesday’s SAG nomination shocker, Michelle Williams is probably most in need of a win, and not just to even get nominated, but to show she can compete for Best Actress against co-favorites Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once).  Margot Robbie of Babylon also desperately needs to win at Critics’ Choice.

Needs to Win: Michelle Williams and Margot Robbie

Should Win: Cate Blanchett (Tár)

Will Win: Cate Blanchett

Best Actor

Austin Butler (Elvis), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) appear to be safe.  Bill Nighy (Living) is less of a lock than Butler, Fraser and Farrell, but also seems safe.  Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), seemingly the only past Oscar nominee in true contention in this category this year, and relatively little-known Paul Mescal (Aftersun) seem to be in a battle with surprise SAG nominee Adam Sandler (Hustle) and Golden Globe nominee Hugh Jackman (The Son), among others, for that last Best Actor slot.

Needs to Win: Tom Cruise and Paul Mescal

Should Win: Brendan Fraser (The Whale)

Will Win: Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Best Director

I think the nominated directors who would benefit most from an upset win at Critics’ Choice tomorrow are S.S. Rajamouli (RRR), Sarah Polley (Women Talking) and Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King).

Needs to Win: Gina Prince-Bythewood 

Should Win: Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)

Will Win: Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Best Picture

A month ago, Babylon and Women Talking appeared to be shoo-ins for Best Picture Oscar nominations.  Both films are in serious trouble now.  An upset win at Critics’ Choice would very much help both films.

Needs to Win: Women Talking

Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin

Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once

 

Golden Globe Motion Picture Awards Preview: Who Needs To Win The Most Tonight?

Every year there are some films and actors that appear to be such overwhelming Oscar victory favorites that they could lose at the Golden Globes and be in absolutely no danger of not being nominated.  For example, does anyone at this point honestly believe that Michelle Yeoh, who’s expected to win Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy for Everything Everywhere All At Once, won’t be one of the five Best Actress nominees two weeks from today?  And Colin Farrell of The Banshees of Inisherin may be the only Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy nominee who doesn’t need to win tonight  to be nominated for an Oscar.

But what about the rest of the pack?  Who desperately needs to win at tonight’s Golden Globe Awards to keep alive what may be fading Oscar nomination hopes.  Let’s take a look.

Let’s start with what is traditionally the first award of the night, Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture.  Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and, to a lesser extent, Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) seem to be safe.  Dolly DeLeon of Triangle of Sadness, however, may need to pull off an upset tonight to make the Oscar cut.  And Carey Mulligan, whose She Said just isn’t doing well this awards season, really needs to win, or else, in all likelihood, no Oscar nomination.  In the Best Supporting Actor race, maybe only little-known Barry Keoghan of The Banshees of Inisherin is in a “must win to get in” scenario.  Keoghan’s co-star Brendon Gleeson appears to be safe, and Ke Huy Quan of EEAAO is really safe, as well he should be after dominating the critics’ group awards.  As for Brad Pitt of Babylon, he could be the one member of his film’s cast to get an Oscar nomination despite its fading fortunes.  Plus, Pitt won two of three previous times he was nominated in this category at the Golden Globes, so he can’t be ruled out for an upset.

In the Best Screenplay race, Sarah Polley, who wrote and directed Women Talking, may need to win here to stop her film’s awards season freefall. As for Best Director, probably every single nominee needs to win to be assured of a Best Director Oscar nomination.  A clearer picture of who may be nominated for an Oscar may come with tomorrow’s Directors’ Guild nominations.

In the Best Actress categories, Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (EEAAO) do not need to win tonight to get Oscar nominations, but people like Margot Robbie (Babylon), Ana De Armas (Blonde) and Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris) most certainly do.  In the Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy Globe race, if your name is not Colin Farrell, you’d better pull off a major upset tonight to have any shot at an Oscar nomination.  In the Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama race, the nominees most in need of a win tonight are Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) and Hugh Jackman (The Son)

.Finally, in the Best Picture categories, the films most in need of a win are Babylon, Triangle of Sadness and Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.

Below are my predictions for the Golden Globe Awards for Motion Pictures.

 

Best Motion Picture Drama: Elvis

Best Motion Picture Musical or Comedy: Everything Everywhere All At Once (But don’t be too shocked if The Banshees of Inisherin wins instead.)

Best Actor Drama: Austin Butler in Elvis

Best Actress Drama: Cate Blanchett in Tár

Best Actor Musical or Comedy: Colin Farrell in The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Actress Musical or Comedy: Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Supporting Actress: Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Animated Feature: Pinocchio

Best Original Song: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR

Best Original Score: John Williams for The Fabelmans

Best Non-English Language Film: RRR

Best Director: Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans

Best Screenplay: Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin