Oscar Nominations 2018: Commentary and Early Oscar Night Predictions

Last week I posted my Oscar nomination predictions in six categories.  So how did I do?  Let’s go category by category:

Best Picture

Seven of the eight films I predicted would be nominated for Best Picture were among the nine eventual nominees.  I missed with I, Tonya and didn’t see The Darkest Hour or, especially, Phantom Thread coming. The Phantom Thread nomination haul, coupled with the shocking omission of Martin McDonagh from the Best Director category, constituted the biggest upset of this year’s Oscar nominations.

Early Oscar Night Prediction:  It’s now a two-horse race between The Shape of Water and Lady Bird, with a slight edge going to The Shape of Water.

Best Director

Only two of my five Best Director picks made the cut.  I was SHOCKED Martin McDonagh of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was passed over in favor of Phantom Thread director Paul Thomas Anderson.

Early Oscar Night Prediction:  This category is also a two-horse race between Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) and Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), and I think there’s a real chance they’ll split the DGA and Oscar between them.  Right now, I think Del Toro wins the DGA award while Ms. Gerwig wins the Best Director Oscar, but it could go the other way around.

Best Actor

James Franco was an apparent victim of the #MeToo movement as he went from nomination shoo-in to no nomination at all for The Disaster Artist. Those sexual abuse allegations against Franco became public right at the time Academy members were trying to decide which names to write down on their nominating ballots. Denzel Washington of Roman J. Israel, Esquire was probably the main beneficiary of the fall of James Franco.  My other miss was in predicting Academy voters would pick Tom Hanks (The Post) instead of eventual nominee Daniel Day Lewis (Phantom Thread). I got three of the five nominees.

Early Oscar Night Prediction: Gary Oldman will win.

Best Actress

This was one category I was right on the money with, as I correctly predicted all five nominees.  And Academy Actors Branch members did pick Meryl Streep instead of Judi Dench.

Early Oscar Night Prediction:  Right now, I believe Frances McDormand will win. However, she could be picked off by either Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.

Best Supporting Actor

I got four of the five nominees and missed when I predicted Michael Stuhlbarg instead of Christopher Plummer.

Early Oscar Night Prediction:  I think Sam Rockwell will win.

Best Supporting Actress

I was a perfect five-for-five in this category.  I even correctly predicted the out-of-left-field nomination of Phantom Thread’s Lesley Manville, the only Oscar-nominated actor or actress this year not nominated for either a Golden Globe Award or a Screen Actors’ Guild Award.  Also, I should point out that all five Best Supporting Actress nominees are in their forties or older. I think this is the first time this has happened since 1987.

Early Oscar Night Prediction: I believe Allison Janney will win.

Last updated January 27, 2018