My Oscar Picks

This has been a rather strange and unpredictable Oscar season, and we seem to be headed for another Best Picture Oscar Night upset.  I guess we’ll have to wait ‘til next year to see a return to 70s/80s/90s-style Oscar normalcy.

Best Supporting Actress

Early in the awards season, Lady Bird’s Laurie Metcalf, who won most of the major critics’ groups’ best supporting actress awards, seemed to be running away with the Oscar.  Instead, it is now I, Tonya’s Allison Janney who is running away from the pack

My pick to win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Most likely to pull off an upset: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Best Supporting Actor

In this category as well, we had an early runaway favorite who was winning everywhere (Willem Dafoe of The Florida Project), then there was a momentum shift at the time of the Golden Globes in favor of Sam Rockwell of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.

My pick to win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Most likely to pull off an upset: Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Best Actor

Timothee Chalamet won the lion’s share of the critics’ awards for Call Me By Your Name, but since the critics’ awards ended, Gary Oldman has solidly taken the lead in the Best Actor race.

My pick to win: Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour

Most likely to pull off an upset: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name

Best Actress

Frances McDormand has virtually swept the highest-profile precursors (i.e. Golden Globe, BFCA’s Critics’ Choice, SAG and BAFTA), but because she has won an Oscar previously, for the 1996 film Fargo, she could get picked off because of Academy voters’ long-standing reluctance to give any actor or actress more than one Oscar during his/her career. But who’s going to knock off Frances McDormand?  It won’t be Meryl Streep of The Post. (Katherine Hepburn’s record of four Oscars by an actor or actress will remain safe for at least another year as Daniel Day Lewis of Phantom Thread isn’t winning either.)  And I doubt it will be Saoirse Ronan of Lady Bird.  I would’ve liked Margot Robbie’s chances for an upset better if I, Tonya had been nominated for Best Picture as expected.  Maybe if there’s a late groundswell for The Shape of Water, Sally Hawkins might win.

My pick to win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Most likely to pull off an upset: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Best Original Screenplay

This category is loaded.  Any one of four films could win in this category.

My pick to win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Most likely to pull off an upset A: Lady Bird, because in case Greta Gerwig loses out for Best Director, Academy voters may want to give her a consolation prize.

Most likely to pull off an upset B: Get Out, which just won the Writers’ Guild award.

Best Adapted Screenplay

My pick to win: Call Me By Your Name

Most likely to pull off an upset: Mudbound

Best Director

The Shape of Water has been something of a paper tiger this awards season, consistently leading all films in nominations in one contest after another, but just as consistently failing to win that many awards of any sort, let alone Best Picture. Will this drag down Guillermo Del Toro, winner at the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice, DGA and BAFTA awards?  I still think Best Director is a two-person race between Del Toro and Greta Gerwig of Lady Bird.

My pick to win: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water. However, if Del Toro loses the Best Director Oscar, The Shape of Water will NOT win Best Picture.

Most likely to pull off an upset: Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird, who I think will receive a HUGE chunk of the female vote from Academy members.

Best Picture

Let’s start by listing the films I think have absolutely no chance of winning: The Post, Phantom Thread and The Darkest Hour.  That still leaves Dunkirk, The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, Call Me By Your Name, Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and you could make a strong case for and against any one of these six.

-The Shape of Water

Pro: It has the most nominations and is the film most likely to win the Best Director award. It also won the Producers’ Guild and Directors’ Guild awards.

Con: For all of its domination of the awards at the nomination stage, this film has frankly not done all that well in the final tallies.  At least La La Land last year backed up all of its nominations by winning a lot of awards in most contests up to and including the Oscars.

-Get Out

Pro: WGA win, critical acclaim

Con: Before the WGA awards, Get Out didn’t win much of anything in the highest profile precursor awards, but then again neither did Spotlight and Moonlight, and look what happened.

-Lady Bird

Pro: Possibly the most consistent winner of all the Best Picture nominees in the critics’ awards

Con: This film hasn’t done a whole lot of winning since the critics’ awards ended.

-Call Me By Your Name

Pro: WGA win, critical acclaim

Con: No Best Director nomination, not much in the way of wins since critics’ awards ended

-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Pro: Won Best Motion Picture Drama Golden Globe Award, Won BAFTA Best Picture Award, Won SAG Best Ensemble Cast Award

Con: No Best Director nomination

-Dunkirk

Pro: This film finished second in total nominations and was a critical and commercial success.  Also, based on what I’ve read, a lot of people in movie circles still think this film has a chance to win.

Con: Where are this film’s big award wins? I find it a little hard to believe that Dunkirk, after winning very little of significance all awards season, will suddenly sweep or nearly sweep Oscar Night.

My pick to win: The Shape of Water, but not if Del Toro loses Best Director.

Most likely to pull off an upset A: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, because this film has been The Shape of Water’s nemesis since the Golden Globe Awards.

Most likely to pull off an upset B: Get Out  

Last updated March 1, 2018

Oscar Nominations 2018: Commentary and Early Oscar Night Predictions

Last week I posted my Oscar nomination predictions in six categories.  So how did I do?  Let’s go category by category:

Best Picture

Seven of the eight films I predicted would be nominated for Best Picture were among the nine eventual nominees.  I missed with I, Tonya and didn’t see The Darkest Hour or, especially, Phantom Thread coming. The Phantom Thread nomination haul, coupled with the shocking omission of Martin McDonagh from the Best Director category, constituted the biggest upset of this year’s Oscar nominations.

Early Oscar Night Prediction:  It’s now a two-horse race between The Shape of Water and Lady Bird, with a slight edge going to The Shape of Water.

Best Director

Only two of my five Best Director picks made the cut.  I was SHOCKED Martin McDonagh of Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri was passed over in favor of Phantom Thread director Paul Thomas Anderson.

Early Oscar Night Prediction:  This category is also a two-horse race between Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird) and Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water), and I think there’s a real chance they’ll split the DGA and Oscar between them.  Right now, I think Del Toro wins the DGA award while Ms. Gerwig wins the Best Director Oscar, but it could go the other way around.

Best Actor

James Franco was an apparent victim of the #MeToo movement as he went from nomination shoo-in to no nomination at all for The Disaster Artist. Those sexual abuse allegations against Franco became public right at the time Academy members were trying to decide which names to write down on their nominating ballots. Denzel Washington of Roman J. Israel, Esquire was probably the main beneficiary of the fall of James Franco.  My other miss was in predicting Academy voters would pick Tom Hanks (The Post) instead of eventual nominee Daniel Day Lewis (Phantom Thread). I got three of the five nominees.

Early Oscar Night Prediction: Gary Oldman will win.

Best Actress

This was one category I was right on the money with, as I correctly predicted all five nominees.  And Academy Actors Branch members did pick Meryl Streep instead of Judi Dench.

Early Oscar Night Prediction:  Right now, I believe Frances McDormand will win. However, she could be picked off by either Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan.

Best Supporting Actor

I got four of the five nominees and missed when I predicted Michael Stuhlbarg instead of Christopher Plummer.

Early Oscar Night Prediction:  I think Sam Rockwell will win.

Best Supporting Actress

I was a perfect five-for-five in this category.  I even correctly predicted the out-of-left-field nomination of Phantom Thread’s Lesley Manville, the only Oscar-nominated actor or actress this year not nominated for either a Golden Globe Award or a Screen Actors’ Guild Award.  Also, I should point out that all five Best Supporting Actress nominees are in their forties or older. I think this is the first time this has happened since 1987.

Early Oscar Night Prediction: I believe Allison Janney will win.

Last updated January 27, 2018

My Oscar Nomination Picks

This coming Tuesday (January 23), the nominations for the 90^th annual Academy Awards will be announced.  Let me first say that the Oscars have changed quite a bit in the last decade and a half when it comes to nomination and victory patterns.  Through most of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, there were four Oscar absolutes: (1) The film with the most nominations won the Best Picture Oscar; (2) The winner of the Directors’ Guild of America’s (DGA) top award won the Best Director Oscar; (3) The Best Picture winner won the most Oscars on Oscar Night; and (4) Best Picture and Best Director went together. 

Lately, however, only the second absolute, the DGA winner winning the Best Director Oscar, has remained true most years.  In the last decade and a half, and especially in the last six years, we’ve seen a string of Oscar Night upsets in which not only has the film with the most nominations failed to win the Best Picture Oscar, but the film winning the most Oscars on the big night has not won the Best Picture Oscar either.  And we seem to be heading in that direction again this year as there is no clear favorite to win the Best Picture Oscar.

Here is my look at where we stand in each major category, along with my Oscar nomination predictions.

Best Picture

There can be anywhere from five to ten Best Picture nominees.  Yet only three prospective Best Picture nominees seem likely to win at this point: Lady Bird, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.  What makes picking an eventual winner from those three so difficult is the unusual fact that every single one of these films has a major Best Picture victory destroying strike against it.  In the case of Lady Bird, the most consistent winner of all the possible Best Picture nominees, it’s the lack of a Best Director Golden Globe Award nomination for Greta Gerwig.  *No film whose director was not nominated for the Best Director Golden Globe Award has won the Best Picture Oscar since The Sting in 1973.  In the case of The Shape of Water, which is likely to receive the most Oscar nominations of any movie, its Best Picture kiss of death may be its absence from the list of Best Motion Picture Cast nominees in the Screen Actors’ Guild award contest.  You have to go back to the very first year of this SAG award for the last time a non-nominee, Braveheart, went on to win the Best Picture Oscar.  And only one film in the last forty years, Titanic in 1997, has won the Best Picture Oscar despite not receiving a screenplay nomination.  The Writers’ Guild of America ruled Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri ineligible for its awards, but the film is still eligible for a screenplay Oscar nomination. If Academy voters follow the WGA’s lead and leave Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri off the list of screenplay nominees, that film could be in serious trouble on Oscar Night. However, just three years ago, Birdman was ruled ineligible for Writers’ Guild award consideration but still won big at the Oscars.[i]

As for the other contenders, the biggest Cinderella story has been I, Tonya, which has done a lot better this awards season than anyone could have expected with a surprise Producers’ Guild nomination for the film and an out-of-left-field BAFTA Best Actress nomination for star Margot Robbie, while perhaps the biggest disappointment has been Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk, a one-time Best Picture favorite that has yet to win any prize of significance this awards season.

Here are my picks for Best Picture:

Call Me By Your Name

Dunkirk

Get Out

I, Tonya

Lady Bird

The Post

The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

My Best Director Picks:

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

Craig Gillespie, I Tonya

Patty Jenkins, Wonder Woman

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Wild Card: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name

Additional Comments: I think the unexpected strength of I, Tonya will carry Craig Gillespie to a Best Director nomination, possibly at the expense of Dunkirk’s Christopher Nolan, and I believe a lot of Academy members see an opportunity to produce two female Best Director nominees in the same year for the first time ever.

Best Actor

In this race, Daniel Kaluuya of Get Out is the closest equivalent to the Cinderella Story that is Margot Robbie of I, Tonya.  Kaluuya’s unexpected strength this awards season has probably cost either Daniel Day-Lewis or Tom Hanks, both perennial Oscar favorites, a nomination.

My Best Actor Picks:

Timothee Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name (At age 22, Chalamet would be the youngest nominee this category has seen in many years.)

James Franco, The Disaster Artist

Tom Hanks, The Post

Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out

Gary Oldman, The Darkest Hour

Wild Card: Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread

Best Actress

Because I, Tonya and its producer-star Margot Robbie have done better than expected, two frequently nominated actresses, Dame Judi Dench and Meryl Streep, are probably competing against each other for one spot.  I think the Academy will nominate either one or the other, but not both.

My Best Actress Picks:

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water

Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Margot Robbie, I, Tonya

Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird

Meryl Streep, The Post (Her record-extending 21^st Oscar nomination for acting in the last 40 years!)

Wild Card: Dame Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul

Best Supporting Actor

It seems to be between Willem Dafoe and Sam Rockwell for the Oscar Night win in this category.

My Best Supporting Actor Picks:

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project

Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water

Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name

Wild Card: Armie Hammer, Call Me By Your Name

Best Supporting Actress

This has really become a two-woman race between Laurie Metcalf and Allison Janney.

My Best Supporting Actress Picks:

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound

Allison Janney, I, Tonya

Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird

Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Wild Card: Whoever plays Nancy Kerrigan in I, Tonya.

Next week, I’ll comment on how I fared with my major category Oscar nomination predictions.

Last Updated January 20, 2018
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*CORRECTION February 3, 2018: I’d like to correct a statement I made in this article. While it is true that no non-Golden Globe nominee has won the Best Director Oscar since The Sting’s George Roy Hill in 1973, I’ve become aware that two movies since The Sting have won the Best Picture Oscar despite no Best Director Golden Globe nomination: Driving Miss Daisy (1989) and Crash (2005), which became the first film since The Sting to win Best Picture at the Oscars despite no equivalent Golden Globe Award nomination.

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[i] http://variety.com/2017/film/awards/darkest-hour-three-billboards-wga-awards-not-eligible-1202631189/