Who's Getting Nominated This Week?

 We're about two weeks removed from the Screen Actors Guild award nominations and the BAFTA longlists.  Some films and actors are in good shape, but others are in trouble.  Here are questions that must be answered:

 

Will West Side Story be penalized for its disappointing box office performance?

Is Best Picture really now just a two-film race between The Power of the Dog and Belfast?

Could Drive My Car come out of nowhere to steal the Best Picture Oscar a la Parasite?

Will Dune become the latest film to lead in Oscar nominations, and maybe also Oscar wins, but fail to win the big prize?

 

Let's start with the acting races.  Best Actress seems to be a battle royal where only surprise Golden Globe winner Nicole Kidman of Being the Ricardos is a lock to even be nominated come  February 8.  I do think, however, that Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Lady Gaga (The House of Gucci) are safely in because of their own personal momentum and that of their movies. 

 

Then things are up for grabs.  Jessica Chastain of The Eyes of Tammy Faye stands a good chance of being nominated, but her film is unlikely to receive any other Oscar nominations.  Some Academy members may not consider viewing the "Tammy Faye" screeners as that high a priority.  For argument's sake, let's say Ms. Chastain is in.  That means you maybe have up to six women realistically battling for one spot, and they are, in alphabetical order, Penelope Cruz (Parallel Mothers), Alana Haim (Licorice Pizza), Jennifer Hudson (Respect), Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World), Kristen Stewart (Spencer) and Rachel Zegler (West Side Story). Tessa Thompson of Passing and Emilia Jones of CODA are also possibilities.  I think Kristen Stewart will get the last Best Actress spot, but after not getting a Screen Actors Guild award nomination, she is NOT winning on Oscar Night...and she was once the favorite to win it all!   And could Jennifer Hudson potentially pull off an Emily Blunt shocker and win at SAG despite not getting an Oscar nomination?  Still, believe me when I tell you that Jennifer Hudson needed that SAG nomination in the worst way after being passed over for Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice nominations.

 

In Best Supporting Actress, however, an Ariana DeBose win for West Side Story is already seen as a foregone conclusion, so much so that it may not matter who the other four nominees are.  Still, Caitriona Balfe (Belfast), Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog) and, to a lesser extent, Ruth Negga (Passing) seem to be safely in, leaving a handful of women battling for one spot.  King Richard’s Aunjanue Ellis, despite being passed over by SAG for an individual nomination, has the lead for the fifth spot.  But what if Ms. Ellis or Ms. Negga should miss?  Will "Belfast* get a second Best Supporting Actress nominee in Judi Dench, or West Side Story in Rita Moreno?  Will Mass, which has Ann Dowd and Martha Plimpton, receive one, two or zero nominations in this category? Could either the frequently nominated Cate Blanchett (Nightmare Alley) or the even more frequently nominated Meryl Streep (Don’t Look Up) add to their career nomination totals? What about the chance for an out of left field nominee?

 

I think Best Actor is mostly settled except for one spot.  Will it be Peter Dinklage (Cyrano), Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) or Hidetoshi Nishijima from Drive My Car, a movie that has a lot of awards momentum?

 

Best Supporting Actor has two locks in Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) and Troy Kotsur (CODA).  Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) is not a lock, but you have to like his chances.  Then there are question marks.  Will either Ciaran Hinds or Jamie Dornan be nominated for Belfast? Will they both be nominated as they were at the Golden Globes, or will neither be nominated individually a la SAG? Does The Power of the Dog get a second nominee in Jesse Plemons? Does Bradley Cooper get nominated for Licorice Pizza? Does the up until now overlooked Mike Faist get hurt by the disappointing West Side Story grosses?  Does a child actor get nominated here this year?  If so, which one: Jude Hill of Belfast or Woody Norman of C'mon C'mon?

 

And speaking of Jude Hill, the “For Your Consideration” Oscar ads for “Belfast” are pushing him for Best Actor.  But Motion Picture Academy Actors’ Branch members almost never nominate child or teen actors in the lead categories.  So if you think the Academy is going to nominate an 11-year-old boy for Best Actor, think again!  I just don’t see it happening.  But if “Belfast” really gets on a roll, Jude Hill could be the film’s third Best Supporting Actor nominee, almost certainly at the expense of Cooper and/or Affleck.

 

At a later date, I’ll offer my acting Oscar nomination predictions and my picks for winners at the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards.

 

Next is a look at the Best Director race.

 

I believe four of the five Golden Globe Award nominees for Best Director will make the DGA cut, while the fifth, Maggie Gyllenhaal of The Lost Daughter, will have to settle for the DGA nomination for first-time directors and will be replaced by non-Golden Globe nominee Paul Thomas Anderson of Licorice Pizza.  Come February 8, however, both could be passed over in favor of Ryusuke Hamaguchi, whose film, Drive My Car, is surging with Best Picture wins from the Big Three film critics’ organizations (New York Film Critics, Los Angeles Film Critics and National Society of Film Critics).

 

So here are my picks for the Directors’ Guild of America’s top award:

 

Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza

Kenneth Branagh, Belfast

Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Steven Spielberg, West Side Story

Denis Villenueve, Dune

 

And here are my predicted nominees for the DGA’s Outstanding Achievement in a First-Time Feature Film Award:

Benjamin Cleary, Swan Song

Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter

Rebecca Hall, Passing

Lin-Manuel Miranda, tick, tick…BOOM!

Emma Seligman, Shiva Baby

 

Finally, here are the films I think will be nominated by the Producers’ Guild:

 

Belfast

CODA

Don’t Look Up

Drive My Car

Dune

House of Gucci

Licorice Pizza

The Power of the Dog

tick, tick…BOOM!

West Side Story

 

Wild Cards: King Richard, The Lost Daughter

 

The films I listed above have the most buzz surrounding them.  Yet I am concerned that at some point West Side Story could be penalized for not being the big box office hit it was expected to be.  This is a situation that bears watching.

I'll post again around February 5.