The 2018-19 movie awards season has featured one surprise or
shocker after another, possibly setting the stage for what could be the most
upset-filled Oscar Night ever.
The weirdness began in earnest on the morning of December
12, 2018, when the Screen Actors’ Guild award nominations were announced. Despite
having already won several Best Supporting Actress awards from critics’ groups
for her role in If Beale Street Could
Talk, Regina King was not among the SAG Award nominees. Weeks later came what may have been the
greatest upset in the 25-year history of the SAG Awards: just days after being
missing from the list of Oscar nominees, actress Emily Blunt won the Best Female
Actor in a Supporting Role award for her work in A Quiet Place.
The award season started out looking as if it might be
between A Star Is Born and The Favourite for the Best Picture
Oscar. But what has happened instead? Vice became the Best Picture frontrunner
for about two seconds by picking up the most Golden Globe nominations (6), only
to go 1 for 6 at the ceremony, while The
Favourite and A Star Is Born each
went a disappointing 1 for 5. The
surprise Best Motion Picture choices of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association
were Green Book (Musical or Comedy)
and, in probably the biggest Golden Globe upset since Atonement defeated No Country
for Old Men for Best Motion Picture Drama and Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
knocked off the Coen brothers for Best Director eleven years ago, Bohemian Rhapsody (Drama). Then, Green
Book pulled off another Best Picture upset, this time in the Producers’
Guild of America awards. Green Book,
despite its key wins, has been dogged by controversy over its portrayal of race
relations, thus casting some doubt on whether it can go all the way.
The Favourite has
really only started to perform like the favorite to win on Oscar Night recently
with its near sweep of the BAFTA awards…after frankly underachieving at the high-profile
precursors (Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice, PGA, DGA and SAG). One film
possibly capable of stopping the belated Favourite
juggernaut is the Mexican film Roma,
whose director, Alfonso Cuarón,
has won Best Director honors from nearly every possible organization. (One of Cuarón’s only defeats this award season came at the hands
of Leave No Trace director Debra
Granik, and a lot of good that Los Angeles Film Critics’ upset win did her as
she and her film were totally shut out in the Oscar nominations!)
Speaking of Roma,
some believe it could become the first foreign-language film to ever win the
Best Picture Oscar. Yet there are a few troubling signs about this film’s
chances. Most troubling is that Roma has not done all that well in the
Hollywood guild awards. It probably
would have won a prize from the Producers’ Guild if the PGA had a Best Foreign-Language Film award, which it does
not. Roma also was completely shut
out in the Screen Actors’ Guild award nominations. The absence of The Favourite from the Writers’ Guild awards field should have opened
the door for either Roma or Green Book to possibly take a lead in
the Best Picture Oscar race. Instead, we saw what may have been the greatest
Writers’ Guild award upset ever, a Best Original Screenplay win by Bo Burnham
for Eighth Grade, a film completely
shut out in the Oscar nominations. It is
extremely rare for one of the Writers’ Guild’s top motion picture awards to go
to a film not nominated for either Best Picture or Best Screenplay at the Oscars.
The acting awards at this stage seem to be a little more
settled than Best Picture, but as was pointed out earlier, even the acting
awards weren’t exempt from surprises and shockers. Aside from Regina King not
being nominated by SAG, the biggest surprise was the near-total precursor and
eventual Oscar nomination shutout of Ethan Hawke of First Reformed. How did
Hawke end up not being nominated for either a Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA or Oscar award after winning as many
critics’ group Best Actor awards as he did?
Granted several of the early critics’ group awards were announced just
as Golden Globe and SAG nomination voting was ending, but were people simply
not paying attention?
So, who or what will win at the Oscars this weekend? Let’s go category by category. (I’m only
doing the major categories.)
Best Picture
My pick to win: Green
Book. In this confusing movie awards season, I opted to play it safe and go
with the Producers’ Guild winner, controversy or no controversy.
Most likely to pull off an upset A The Favourite (It is tied
for the most Oscar nominations and could win more Oscars than any other movie.)
Most likely to pull off an upset B: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Director
My pick to win: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Most likely to pull off an upset A: Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman, because many feel it’s
time for a black director to finally win the Best Director Oscar.
Most likely to pull off an upset B: Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite. Could he become the first
non-DGA nominee ever to win the Best Director Oscar, and as part of a Favourite sweep or near-sweep?
Best Actor
My pick to win: Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Most likely to pull off an upset: Christian Bale, Vice
Best Actress
My pick to win: Glenn Close, The Wife
Most likely to pull off an upset A: Olivia Colman, The Favourite (She could win even if The Favourite ultimately does not win
Best Picture.)
Most likely to pull off an upset B: Yalitza Aparicio, Roma, especially if co-star Marina de
Tavira has already won earlier in the night and/or if it looks like Roma will win nearly everything in sight.
Best Supporting Actor
My pick to win: Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Most likely to pull off an upset: Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Best Supporting Actress
My pick to win: Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk. Despite the SAG snub, Ms. King has just
won too many precursor awards not to win on Oscar Night. (But then again, we
thought Ethan Hawke won just too many critics’ group awards not to be nominated
for an Oscar.)
Most likely to pull off an upset: Strangely enough it is another non-SAG nominee, Marina de
Tavira of Roma, who may be most
likely to pick off Ms. King. If Ms. de Tavira wins, Roma is probably winning the Best Picture Oscar, but if co-star
Yalitza Aparicio also wins, the rout is on…maybe.
Best Original Screenplay
My pick to win: The
Favourite
Most likely to pull off an upset: Green Book
Best Adapted Screenplay
My pick to win: BlackkKlansman
Most likely to pull off an upset: Can You Ever Forgive Me? (This film just won at the Writers’ Guild
Awards.)
Best Foreign-Language Film
My pick to win: Roma
Most likely to pull off an upset: Cold War (If Roma hasn’t
won anything yet when this category comes up, a loss here could mean Roma may go 0-for-10!)
